ΔE 21.5, loose: different enough that you should pick on purpose. Forged Red is a little darker, much more saturated, warmer than Box Wine.
Not as a straight swap; see the closer alternatives below. Loose match (ΔE 22). Forged Red is a little darker, much more saturated, warmer than Box Wine.
The same difference applies the other way round: Box Wine is a little lighter, much more muted, cooler.
ΔE is the colour difference between our two swatch estimates: under about 6 is close, over about 15 is loose. Real paints also differ in finish, coverage and how they thin, so test before you commit.
See Box Wine on the colour wheel See Forged Red on the colour wheel
All matches: Box Wine equivalents · Forged Red equivalents