ΔE 17.7, loose: different enough that you should pick on purpose. Paynes Gray is noticeably darker, more muted than Thunderhawk Blue.
Not as a straight swap; see the closer alternatives below. Loose match (ΔE 18). Paynes Gray is noticeably darker, more muted than Thunderhawk Blue.
The same difference applies the other way round: Thunderhawk Blue is noticeably lighter, more saturated.
ΔE is the colour difference between our two swatch estimates: under about 6 is close, over about 15 is loose. Real paints also differ in finish, coverage and how they thin, so test before you commit.
See Thunderhawk Blue on the colour wheel See Paynes Gray on the colour wheel
All matches: Thunderhawk Blue equivalents · Paynes Gray equivalents