ΔE 31.6, loose: different enough that you should pick on purpose. Martian Orange is a little darker, warmer than Carmine Dragon.
Not as a straight swap; see the closer alternatives below. Loose match (ΔE 32). Martian Orange is a little darker, warmer than Carmine Dragon.
The same difference applies the other way round: Carmine Dragon is a little lighter, cooler.
ΔE is the colour difference between our two swatch estimates: under about 6 is close, over about 15 is loose. Real paints also differ in finish, coverage and how they thin, so test before you commit.
See Carmine Dragon on the colour wheel See Martian Orange on the colour wheel
All matches: Carmine Dragon equivalents · Martian Orange equivalents