ΔE 17.3, loose: different enough that you should pick on purpose. Naphthol Pink is a little lighter, more saturated, warmer than Carmine Dragon. They are different kinds of paint: Army Painter Carmine Dragon is a one-coat contrast-style paint and Golden Naphthol Pink is an opaque base/layer paint, so they won’t behave the same on the model even where the colour is close.
Not as a straight swap; see the closer alternatives below. Loose match (ΔE 17). Naphthol Pink is a little lighter, more saturated, warmer than Carmine Dragon. They are different kinds of paint.
The same difference applies the other way round: Carmine Dragon is a little darker, more muted, cooler.
ΔE is the colour difference between our two swatch estimates: under about 6 is close, over about 15 is loose. Real paints also differ in finish, coverage and how they thin, so test before you commit.
See Carmine Dragon on the colour wheel See Naphthol Pink on the colour wheel
All matches: Carmine Dragon equivalents · Naphthol Pink equivalents