ΔE 12.5, fair: the same colour family, but not a straight swap. Smoke is noticeably lighter, more saturated than Ash Grey.
Only where an exact match doesn’t matter, such as a new unit or a highlight. Fair match (ΔE 12). Smoke is noticeably lighter, more saturated than Ash Grey.
The same difference applies the other way round: Ash Grey is noticeably darker, more muted.
ΔE is the colour difference between our two swatch estimates: under about 6 is close, over about 15 is loose. Real paints also differ in finish, coverage and how they thin, so test before you commit.
See Ash Grey on the colour wheel See Smoke on the colour wheel
All matches: Ash Grey equivalents · Smoke equivalents